AFL round 14 ‘expert’ tips

Such a good man, such an unfair blow.

It’s ‘Do it for Jim’ week, Dees

If Melbourne is looking for motivation to finally put in a real effort and win one this year, their club President Jim Stynes just gave them the biggest one I’ve seen in a long time. Stynes, who is only 43, is a former champion player for Melbourne, a Brownlow Medallist and club record-holder. The game’s biggest gentleman revealed on Thursday that a cancerous lump on his back has spread to other parts of his body and that he will step aside as Demons president to face the battle of his life. He’ll spend a week in hospital and two more in therapy but declined to reveal the full prognosis. It doesn’t sound good and if you watched that press conference and didn’t feel moved by it … well you’ve got no soul.

It almost overshadows this week’s ‘game of the century’ between the undefeated St Kilda & Geelong. As great a contest as that game promises to be, it makes you realise that there are much more important things in life and bigger battles to be won. Good luck, Jim.

Here are the ‘expert’ tips, Ray in red, Baldrick in Geelong ‘baby’ blue (of course):

Essendon v Collingwood : If they played this at the ‘Darklands’ under the roof (where it should be played) then Essendon would win on the small ground in dry conditions. But it’s at the Big G on a wet winter’s night and the Bombers will be ‘all at sea’ while the tougher Pies will revel in the conditions – and it truly saddens me to say that!

Melbourne v West Coast : See above. No more really needs to be said. I would have picked West Coast, despite the fact they just don’t win away from Perth, but now it’s a forgone conclusion.

Pt Adelaide v Brisbane : This is one of the hardest picks of the year, and I’m breaking the ‘golden rule’ here, which is, “When two interstate sides play, always go for the home team”. But Port are just too unreliable, whereas Voss has got his Lions playing very well – and class will beat bogan every time.

Richmond v Adelaide : I wonder if the Crows can keep the Tigers scoreless for nearly 3 quarters of the game like St Kilda did last week? It’s possible – this is being played on the big Cararra ground on the Gold Coast and those little Richmond players will just get lost on the flanks.

Bulldogs v Hawthorn : Remember 2008, when Hawthorn somehow won the flag? That was an illusion. Or was it an ’hallucination’? Anyway, if it’s not gone already, Hawthorn’s season will be in absolute tatters after Footscray gives them a lesson in how to play committed – and ‘drug-free’ - footy.

Sydney v Nth Melbourne : Watch Sydney improve remarkably without ‘Bruiser Hall’ in the side. They’ll make the 8. North will make the bottom 4.

Fremantle v Carlton : I really should tip Freo - who have had Carlton’s measure for quite a while – because, as we know, Carlton just don’t win on the road. Freo knows Carlton are ”coming” and they’re looking forward to it, but they might be in for a rude surprise because the Blues have lost 3 in a row, are on 6-7 and in danger of slipping out of final’s contention if they lose. That’s why they won’t.

St Kilda v Geelong: The Saints will win because they will expose the fact that Geelong, as good as they’ve been, has been covering its greatest weakness with its dynamic mid-field. What’s the weakness? Well, Geelong don’t have any key big forwards who can run & jump. Moody & Hawkins are big & strong but they’re also very slow and never get off the ground. Contrast that to Riewoldt & Koschitzke who are about to give the ageing ‘Slow Legs’ of Scarlett & Harley a nightmare come true. The key is going to be in St Kilda’s mid-fielders at least matching it with Geelong’s. If they do that then the Saints will win by 10 goals.

And Baldrick says:

Just when you thought we’d get an easy round to tip, I check the teams for Round 14 and I want a bye from tipping. Is there a certainty amongst any of these? Your threat Raymond to tip some wild ones doesn’t make any sense. There is no wild tip here, other than perhaps the once mighty Tiges and they’ve banished them to the Gold Coast to run them into form. Stuff it, here goes:

THE SCUM (aka COLLINGWOOD) v Essendon:
Watson out. He has some quality that kid. That little sneak Davis is back in with along with the dare I say classy Pendlebury. The thug sits on the sidelines while another one of the Sheedy thugs McPhee returns. Are you breathing fire and brimstone yet Rox? Have to tip the Scum as I can’t see the Bombers fluking enough goals. Not even Brent Prismall will get them across the line.

MELBOURNE v West Coast:
I know, I know, never let sentimentality dictate your choices but I’m doing this because I reckon Stynes is one helluva bloke. Seen him at conferences etc and the work he does with the youth is phenomenal. I couldn’t give a stuff about who is the better team, I really want Melbourne to win to put a smile on Styne’s face. Good luck to his recovery. Saw that raw kid Nick Alphabet last week and he was fantastic, would be good to see it wasn’t a fluke.

Port Adelaide v BRISBANE:
Don’t like Port so not tipping them. And yes, winning away in Adelaide almost impossible for an average team but the Lions aren’t all that shabby.

Richmond v ADELAIDE:
Crows steadily improving. Richmond still jockeying for draft choices. Tanking so early in the year is impressive. Fancy playing this in Queensland, inspirational move AFL.

FOOTSCRAY v Hawthorn:
I want the Doggies to crush the living daylights out of these charlatans. Bullies losing Gia alphabet is a loss though. Footscray aren’t intimidated by anyone let alone these pillocks. Having said all this watch Hawthorn snatch it.

SYDNEY v North Melbourne:
No Hall, a sure Sydney win. Inclusions all quality. North in rebuilding mode. And Mike Pike is back in, got a ring to it.

ST.KILDA v GEELONG
Draw (* see Ray’s comment below)

FREMANTLE v Carlton:
Why do I have to tip this? Carlton humiliated last week. Fremantle always humiliated. Battle of the plonkers. Pavlich a huuuuuuge loss and Soloman’s heavy defending will be missed too. Carlton’s inclusions don’t excite me but then look at the game itself. John Elliot to toss the coin.

Thanks Baldrick. About *the draw: you’re a wimp! Don’t try to claim half a point if either side wins - if it’s not a draw you’ll get a zero (Ray’s rules).

PS: You misunderstood me. I wasn’t suggesting I’d be making any wild tips, just a wild prediction about ‘the big one’. I realise I’m setting myself up with that but I’m prepared to eat humble pie if I’m wrong.