AFL round 15 ‘expert’ tips
Get a haircut!
Is it about to fall apart for Geelong?
I know I’ll cop some flak for saying that but look at the injuries they’ve got – 4 key players ‘battered & bruised’ from last week’s epic ‘game of the century’ are out and Johnson & Ottens are still on the sidelines. And worse still, Baldrick is suicidal! Here are the ‘expert’ tips:
UPDATE: It HAS fallen apart. Ablett & Varcoe are out too! In addition to the above outs it looks like Brisbane by how far? Not only did St Kilda beat Geelong on the scoreboard last week, they clearly beat them in the physical contests. Geelong just can’t come up.
Ray says:
Bulldogs v Collingwood : Six in a row? Collingwood have won six in a row? Well guess what? Their run is about to end … rather spectacularly. Footscray are a class above the Pies and will win this easily.
Sydney v Essendon : It’s all over for the Bombers in 2009. They looked promising, won a few big games and looked like finals contenders there for a while. But it’s getting to the ‘pointy end’ and those young legs have run out of steam, while the big boys at Sydney are gearing up for yet another finals appearance.
Carlton v Richmond : You know, I’ve changed my mind about 6 times on this one. Carlton won last week so this week, if they’re true to form, they should lose. And the Tigers are due to win one. But for some reason I’ll stick with the Blues, although I still don’t believe they’re the ‘real deal’.
Brisbane v Geelong : Sides that play bruising encounters against the Saints usually lose the following week and the 4 major outs (Scarlett, Ling, Kelly & Milburn) are testimony to the fact that Geelong took a real battering. And Johnson is still out. Brisbane are at home, Geelong is on a 6-day turnaround and has no one to stop Brown & Bradshaw … Cats to lose 2 in a row.
Adelaide v Fremantle : No Pavlich and, now, no Sandilands = no hope for Freo, who are hopeless anyway. Adelaide to finish top 4.
Hawthorn v Nth Melbourne : I’d love to pick North to continue Hawthorn’s horror run but, unfortunately, I think all they’ll achieve is to play the Hawks back into some kind of form. Don’t worry though, they still won’t make the finals – look at their draw.
Melbourne v Pt Adelaide : Nothing is surer than Melbourne, having ‘lifted’ themselves for Jim Stynes last week, reverting back to their old insipid ways. I think the problem is their coach, Dean ‘who the hell is he’ Bailey. He’s as lack-lustre as his players. Port could lose it through boredom though.
West Coast v St Kilda : A danger game for sure but somehow I think the undefeated Saints will prevail.
"I might have to pull the boots on myself and help the Cats out."
And Baldrick says:
I’m shattered, we’re gone. Can’t muster the energy to write drivel this week, it’s all I can do to put my meaningless tips up. Now I know how Danny from Droop St feels. Might have to read some Sartre, Sylivia Plath, listen to Leonard Cohen and Janis Ian.
Footscray, Sydney, Carlton, Geelong (someone has to tip em), Adelaide, Hawthorn, Pt.Adelaide, St.Kilda.
Where’s that rusty razor blade……
Contact: ray@grevilleagardens.com
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Good work Ray. I haven’t tipped quite the same as you, but nearly. Since I scuttled my chances by not saving my tips a couple of weeks ago, I have the luxury of tipping teams I like and against those I don’t – like Hawthorn.
I pass over your visual slur on ranga Ling in dignified silence. What does Leanne think of THAT?
What does she think of ‘Piggy’ Ling? Well, he’s not exactly her pin-up boy.
I’m shattered, we’re gone. Can’t muster the energy to write drivel this week, it’s all I can do to put my meaningless tips up.
Now I know how Danny from Droop St feels. Might have to read some Sartre, Sylivia Plath, listen to Leonard Cohen and Janis Ian.
Footscray, Sydney, Carlton, Geelong (someone has to tip em), Adelaide, Hawthorn, Pt.Adelaide, St.Kilda.
Where’s that rusty razor blade……
Just don’t buy any rope, Baldrick.
As for “Leonard Cohen and Janis Ian”, play something more uplifting for Christ’s sake. Try Keb Mo – his songs are always positive and inspirational.
I’ll be tipping Brisbane I think – our best defenders are out against Brown and Bradshaw. And I’ll be surprised if Harry Taylor plays as well.
It’s a bit silly to say it’s all falling apart for Geelong. And if we lose two in a row we won’t turn on the coach at the drop of the hat like Saints supporters do.
There’s that “flak” I mentioned. No Wah, I’m not saying “it’s falling apart …” (not yet), I’m only asking the question.
I think Mark Thompson is the luckiest coach in the history of the game. At any other club he would have been sacked before 2007 when the players finally worked it out for themselves. Thompson doesn’t seem to know how or why Geelong has been so good for the past 3 seasons and the only reason he kept his job after 7 fruitless years prior to 2007 was because Frank Costa knew you had ‘the list’ and all it needed was stability to bring about success.
Honestly, no disrespect meant to Geelong, but I’ve never heard Thompson say anything to indicate he knows what he’s doing and I think it’s your on-field leaders who are effectively coaching the team. That’s how it looks to me anyway.
As for Lyon, there’s no doubt he’s taught St Kilda a game plan and how to defend, but he’s also “lucky” like Thompson. Players make coaches in my opinion.
UPDATE: It HAS fallen apart. Ablett & Varcoe are out too! In addition to the above outs it looks like Brisbane by how far? Not only did St Kilda beat Geelong on the scoreboard last week, they clearly beat them in the physical contests. Geelong just can’t come up.
I can send you my French thesis on Sartre, Baldrick. It got me a good honours degree, but would fit your mood and apparently there’s a few good howlers in there to sob to.
I don’t know whether to change my tips or not. Does ANYONE think the Cats will win?
(Ray, you’re only saying that because he’s a Bomber.)
Cats only have one chance, Rox … if Brisbane catches swine flu.
No, it’s not because he’s ex-Essendon, Rox, I’ve never thought Mark Thompson comes across coherently. And if he’s like that in public how does he get his message to the players? Have you ever watched him in the box? He just sits there – eating.
That’s all he needs to do.
Oh for fuck’s sake they lose one game and now Thompson is a shit coach too? You might want to put that lid back on Ray. If a team is capable of reaching great heights and them plummeting back down to earth it’s St Kilda.
Ablett and Varcoe out is a disaster – which ever teams are competing with Brisbane for those lower spots in the eight will be spewing.
The lid’s on Wah, and I’ve always believed Thompson’s not much of a coach. How do you explain the 7 years pre 2007?
Anyway, I’m not limiting that to Geelong. As I said, I think players make coaches. Look at Pagan, a so-called ’super coach’ when he had a team effectively led by Carey, Archer and a few others but absolutely useless at Carlton. Even Barrasi was ordinary without a super-side to support him.
Don’t take me the wrong way.
That’s my point Rox, Thompson has (or had) a side on his hands that needed no coaching. I reckon anyone could have coached Geelong since 2007 and the results would have been exactly the same.
Well I’ll qualify that (and Wah, please don’t let this upset you, it’s just my independent theory):
It’s no secret that in 2006 a lot of people at Geelong wanted to get rid of Thompson, and that includes a lot of senior players. There was a ‘gulf’ and he wasn’t getting through and he wasn’t getting results out of what was regarded as an elite list.
Remember the big review and Thompson saying, he’d “go” if that’s what they wanted? The only reason he stayed was due to the vision (and brilliance) of Geelong’s President Frank Costa who realised that by re-appointing Thompson it sent a clear message to the players, which was : IT’S UP TO YOU.
And they got that message and stopped stuffing around. In my opinion the only contribution Thompson has made to Geelong’s recent success is that he was kept there and provided stability.
I’ll go and hide now!
Last week wasn’t the test, the real test of what a team Geelong is will be this week against a Brisbane side pumped to exact retribution for the absolute thumping they got at the Cattery and with the knowledge of Geelong being decimated by injury.
Everything points towards a Lions victory and yet I’m sitting on my Cats tip. This team is tough and proud. Unlike the Cats of old who used to lie down. Watch Bartel and Sellwood (ours). We will probably go down but they will know who they’re dealing with when Rooke hits em.
As for the Thompson coaching credibility, Wah I’m partially with Raymond on this one. The success at Geelong is a shared one. As much as Ray has given credit to Costa, and rightly so, kudos should also go to other background players like Cook. I like Thompson but I don’t think he is a genius, I think he has been found out tactically a number of times.
Our team is a super team for a variety of factors, the players belief in themselves is a strong indicator. I distinctly remember after a real insipid performance against I think it was Nth. Melbourne a couple of years back Chapman came out and publicly berated himself and the team saying they were a disgrace. And how many games have we lost since then?
I’m relishing a real cat fight tomorrow night. Bring it on.
Rox, I put the Sartre down and started reading some Lance Armstrong. (Just kidding, I can’t stand the arrogant prick).
Go Cadel
Jesus you’re full of crap. Frank Costa had faith that 2006 was an anomoly and the review resulted in Thompson not being so hands on with everything and delegating more work to assistant coaches. It also resulted in an overhaul of the fitness regime.
By saying coaches like Thompson and Pagan simply sit while the champion players do their thing gives them no credit for buiklding the list. It’s not like in the pre-season of 2007 we went out and drafted all our star players. They all became star players under Thompson. They are a champion team, with a top defence and midfield and led the way with hard-ball gets, posession football and tackling when flooding was in vogue. To not give Thompson any credit for the make up of that side and its style of play is stupid.
Fight…..fiight
It’s amazing Ling can run at all when you see him in person. He happened to be standing right next to us on the surface of Etihad for the U2 concert…in late 07 I think it was.
Gor! Knock-kneed, flat-footed and droopy-shouldered. Obviously very strong but I’d say his running is a major feat of mind over matter.
I doubt that they’re gone Ray.
My tips: Bulldogs, Sydney, Carlton, Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbuns, St Kilda
Ling is a joli-laid (no pun intended). He’ll always pull.
Dogs, Blues, Bombers, Cats, Crows, Roos, Power, Saints.
I can’t say anything – I’m “full of crap” for having a different opinion on whether coaches make players or vice-versa.
You HAVE to say something. It’s your blog. Then you have to rebut all the people who disagree with you.
I’m off to watch the cricket and footy. Vegie Paradise.
OK Rox:
Building lists is an entirely different facet of coaching and is assisted (sometimes entirely run) by people other than the coach. Some coaches have nothing whatsoever to do with recruitment leaving that to their recruitment staff.
Anyway, my point on Thompson (and coaches like Pagan) is it’s been more good luck than good management that has bought them success. And pretty much the same goes for St Kilda’s coach Ross Lyon, who inherited a pretty good list himself.
There’s no need, in my opinion, to say that’s “full of crap” and “stupid” – it’s just a difference of opinion.
Lyon inherited a good list, but he has players with several years experience playing the best football of their careers – he deserves credit for that.
Can you clarify whether some of those present listees at St.Kilda are courtesy of the draft situation. If my memory serves me correctly the Saints had a number of very lean years and is it the case that some of the better players for them are a result of picking up high placed draft choices?
The only “high placed draft picks” are:
Taken @ 1: Riewoldt & Goddard
Taken @ 2: Koschitzke & Ball
I don’t think there are any other current players taken in the top 10. What’s your point? We could have had Judd instead of Ball and there are quite a few other clubs running around with no 1 & 2 draft picks in their sides, like: Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne and even Footscray & Hawthorn.
What a crazy game. Collingwood absolutely dominated for 3 quarters, got out to a 41 point lead, but didn’t know how to put them away. Footscray were a rabble for 3 quarters then dominated the last quarter but didn’t know how to win. They got it down to 1 point with 4 or 5 minutes to play and then fiddled around with the ball until they gave Collingwood their only goal for the quarter. Then, with 20 seconds left they finally work out that you’ve got to attack and they bring it back to a one point margin again. And then … the siren goes. Neither side is a threat to the top two.
Very disappointing. I was hoping the Dogs would make the final 4.
They will, Rox. In fact they’re still 3rd after last night.
For a while there I was thinking, “Geezus, how good are Collingwood?” but then they’d let Footscray back in. The Pies are all style and no real defence. They don’t know how to close a game out and in the end they were out of legs and should have lost that.
As for the Bulldogs, well they have no key forwards.
Does St Kilda play either Bulldogs or Collingwood in coming weeks? It will be good to see where the top four are at in relation to each other. I think any of them will beat another on a given day.
St Kilda plays Footscray in round 18. They don’t play C’wood again. Sure, it’s possible they could lose that game but I reckon C’wood are too suspect in defence and that the Bulldogs have no real forward structure to be a real threat to either Geelong or St Kilda in the finals.
Oh good, 1 out of 3 so far (for both of us). At least Carlton kept their end up but how bad are Sydney? They’re 6-9 now and no hope of the finals. Yeah, we really need a 2nd team up there, they’ll go real well.
Our boys who play this grand old game,
Are always striving for glory and fame!
I will say no more on this, unless provoked. For a while there I thought Richmond were going to give the Blues a real run.
Let me guess, Rox. That’s from Essendon’s club song, right? OK, I was way out in writing them off. They just keep surprising.
It is Ray – I had to look it up. I’m not that rabid. Aren’t club songs awful? And the “singing’ is worse.
I have to confess something. My cousin is a Collingwood supporter – they all are around where we came from, as the local footy club is the Magpies. His picture was in the Melbourne paper some years ago, as he went to a Pies game, vaulted the fence and kissed the MCG.
Disown him.
How can you disown a bloke whose place is called “Mortgage Downs”?
Another training drill for the Cats
Training drill? They were a rabble. I know they had a lot of players out but Geelong’s decision to ‘take it easy’ this week just sent a message to every other team that they’ve taken their foot of the pedal. I’d call that poor coaching.
Loved the Adelaide-Freo result though. One goal for the whole match – go Freo !!!
Oh dear: 1.7 -13 from Freo. Deary me. That is tragic. Looks like the Swans are gorn. Ah well…
Melbourne two wins in a row, Geelong two losses in a row. Might go skiing next week as all the Dees supporters will be at the game to watch a hat trick.
They weren’t at the G, Baldrick – another indictment of the supporters. Saints struggled today but won it with 15 minutes of top footy at the start of the last quarter. Obviously both Geelong & St Kilda were feeling the effects of last week. Geelong more so.