Alpine Opinion

AFL round 17 ‘expert’ tips

Posted in AFL footy by Ray Dixon on 24 July, 2009

The most over-rated coach in AFL history.

The most over-rated coach in AFL history.

The Collingwood coaching saga … who cares?

Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse says his contract saga is “starting to wear thin”. We all know the story: Eddie McGuire wants Nathan Buckley to be Mick’s assistant for a year or two and then for Mick to step aside and hand the job over to Bucks. Mick doesn’t want to play ball because (according to some people) he’s a legend, the greatest coach in living memory, blah, blah, blah.I don’t really care what they do but, as an observation, I don’t think Malthouse is much of a coach at all. Look at his record, 10 years at Collingwood and what has he achieved? Their two grand final appearances were way back in 2002 & 2003 and they lost both of them. Sure, Malthouse coached West Coast to 2 flags way back in 1992 & 1994 but I would suggest that even Dean Bailey (Melbourne’s coach) could have done that. The fact is West Coast were so good back then that they were always going to win a few flags and probably should have won more. So do whatever you like Eddie but just stay out of our faces please – we’re sick of it. Rant over – here are the real ‘expert’ tips for round 17:

Ray says:

Carlton v Collingwood : I’ve ummed and ahhed over this one (which is a bit like deciding whether you want to drink poison or get a bout of swine flu) and, as much as I think Collingwood are over-rated, I think Carlton are extremely over-rated and are simply not capable of winning 4 games in a row.

Geelong v Hawthorn : The Hawks are on a mini-comeback trail and the impetus they’ve got should be enough to get them over a Geelong that seems to have temporarily lost its focus (since the St Kilda game). It’s all an illusion though because come September Hawthorn won’t be there when it matters and the Cats will be fired up again for another crack at the Saints.

Fremantle v West Coast : Hardest pick of the year, so I’ve reverted to the tipsters ‘Golden Rule’ : Never pick Freo.

Brisbane v Nth Melbourne : In contrast to the previous game this is one of the easiest picks of the year, Maybe North should have accepted the AFL’s offer last year to relocate to the Gold Coast – at least they’d get a tan.

St Kilda v Bulldogs : All the so-called experts are saying “this is the one”, and that no Koschitzke = disaster for the Saints. Sorry to tell you that Kosi was ‘missing in action’ last week too against Adelaide and it didn’t seem to matter. I’m always wary of Footscray and we usually don’t beat them by very much – but the Saints should still prevail here.

Melbourne v Sydney : Are Melbourne tanking? Oh no, of course not; they’re just playing a team full of juniors because their better players need a rest before the finals. This will be a walkover.

Essendon v Richmond : No point Richmond winning either. Mind you, even if draft picks were not on the table here for Richmond I’d still go for the Bombers who are a good young side, whereas Richmond are just a rabble.

Adelaide v Pt Adelaide : Why I am picking Port, who have been pathetic this year, to topple Adelaide, who are top 4 contenders and recently won 7 games in a row? Quite simply, it’s because the Crows copped such a battering against St Kilda last week and will still be in ‘shell-shock’. It happened to Geelong too – I call it the St Kilda Steam-Roller Syndrome.

Still suffering from 'St Kilda steam-roller syndrome'?

Still suffering from 'St Kilda steam-roller syndrome'?

And Baldrick says: Not much. You’ve heard it all before. Too stuffed to try to muster energy to write.

Carlton v COLLINGWOOD

GEELONG v Hawthorn

Fremantle v WEST COAST

BRISBANE v Nth.Melbourne

ST.KILDAv Footscray (just)

Melbourne v SYDNEY

ESSENDON v Richmond

ADELAIDE v Pt.Adelaide

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34 Responses

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  1. Roxanna said, on 24 July, 2009 at 2:49 pm

    OK, stuck my neck out and backed Footerscray. And Carlton. I’m never backing Hawthorn or Freo again.

  2. jr said, on 24 July, 2009 at 2:58 pm

    I missed the rant. Couldn’t find it anywhere. Are you sure you posted one?

    Anyway, I don’t reckon the Manila Folders have been any good since the “flamboyant one” took over the business.

  3. Ray Dixon said, on 24 July, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    Well the Bulldogs have more to gain from a win than St Kilda does so who knows? But the Sainters don’t take any games lightly and they’re not easing up (like Geelong have done).

    The C’wood/Carlton game is a toss up because the Pies don’t have Fraser, but they hate losing to Carlton and their anger might get them over the line here.

    I seriously believe Hawthorn will roll Geelong big-time though.

  4. Ray Dixon said, on 24 July, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    “the Manila Folders” ???

  5. jr said, on 24 July, 2009 at 4:21 pm

    That was a while ago when they were (jokingly) going to be re-located to the Phillipines with a new name to boot.

  6. Roxanna said, on 24 July, 2009 at 4:21 pm

    Philippine footy team?

  7. Ray Dixon said, on 24 July, 2009 at 4:57 pm

    Collingwood? I wish they’d go overseas for good.

  8. Roxanna said, on 24 July, 2009 at 5:26 pm

    No, no, you need someone to hate in footy. Mind you, the west coast teams are doing a good job.

  9. Ray Dixon said, on 24 July, 2009 at 6:29 pm

    Hating Carlton is good enough, we’d be well rid of Collingwood. I wonder who the bogans would follow then – maybe they’d all move over to S.A. and follow Pt Adelaide (if they can afford the fare).

  10. Roxanna said, on 25 July, 2009 at 10:58 am

    Oops, backed a big loser there.

  11. Ray Dixon said, on 25 July, 2009 at 11:05 am

    There was a period of about one hour in the middle of that game where neither side scored. It was a bizarre match and what I noticed was both Collingwood & Carlton’s reluctance to tackle and put pressure on the other side. Both sides are lightweights and just won’t have any impact in the finals.

  12. Roxanna said, on 25 July, 2009 at 4:52 pm

    Crikey.

  13. Ray Dixon said, on 25 July, 2009 at 5:00 pm

    Yeah, I couldn’t believe it either, Rox. What happened to Hawthorn? They had Geelong on toast, 5 goals up early in the last quarter and then they stopped attacking. Great comeback by Geelong but equally, I think the Hawks just blew it.

  14. Roxanna said, on 25 July, 2009 at 5:03 pm

    I’m happy. The Hawks must be spitting.

  15. Baldrick said, on 25 July, 2009 at 6:10 pm

    Just another day at the office (sorry, someone else’s office)

  16. Ray Dixon said, on 25 July, 2009 at 6:13 pm

    Come off it, Baldrick. It took a kick after the siren for Geelong to win it, so my guess is you’ve taken the last hour or so to (a) find your breath, (b) gather your thoughts, and (c) clean your underwear.

  17. Ray Dixon said, on 25 July, 2009 at 6:21 pm

    Anyway, great win by Geelong (in the end) and you’ve ‘pulled one back’ on me. Now it’s down to the Adelaide v Port game. And bloody hell, I’ve picked Port!

  18. Baldrick said, on 25 July, 2009 at 7:31 pm

    In all seriousness, was returning from Benalla where #2 had played with the Alpine Eagles and listened to it on the radio.

    I was content with us fighting back to some respectable losing score given the injuries and being 28 points down at 3/4 time.

    I wasn’t nervy at all, was more nervous about #2 driving us home on his L’s.

  19. Ray Dixon said, on 25 July, 2009 at 10:55 pm

    Oh well, you ‘got out of jail’ thanks, I believe, to some pretty inept Hawthorn tactics and (moreover) a lot of determination from Geelong.

    Saints, on the other hand, made Footscray look 2nd rate. An awesome display considering they had no Koschitzke and no Gardiner.

  20. Harry said, on 26 July, 2009 at 11:02 am

    It was pretty clinical wasn’t it ?

  21. Rox said, on 26 July, 2009 at 11:48 am

    I’ve certainly unexcelled this week. 2 out of 5 so far.

  22. Ray Dixon said, on 26 July, 2009 at 12:30 pm

    The Saints are playing disciplined footy, Harry, and there seems to be no letting up in the pressure they apply to their opponents. They just ‘force’ the turnovers and then kick goals from them. Having clearly the best back line is a big help too.

    Rox, it’s one of those rounds – Hawthorn pipped at the post and Freo somehow getting up for a win. I watched the last half of the WA ‘Derby’ and it was a real joke, a comedy. Both sides were hopeless and in the end Freo didn’t ‘win’ it, West Coast were just marginally more inept.

  23. Harry said, on 26 July, 2009 at 12:35 pm

    It would be great for the competition.
    The AFL wanted them to merge less than ten years ago, but St Kilda, one of the few clubs that were actually in the black had, and are having the last laugh.
    I hope for not only their sake, but also their long suffering fans, they can ‘pot the black’ at the end and win it. Forty three years is such a long time ?

  24. Baldrick said, on 26 July, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    Harry, not as long as Geelong had to wait. Mind you, the Catters had won just a couple more than the Saints.

  25. Ray Dixon said, on 26 July, 2009 at 1:53 pm

    Geelong went 44 years without a flag but the Saints were in the VFL for 69 years before they won their first in 1966.

    It’s not the longest wait though, Sydney/Sth Melbourne had a 72 year drought from 1933 to 2005.

    But of the current sides, it’s Footscray who have gone the longest without a premiership – it’s 55 years since they won their only flag in 1954.

    It’s mind boggling when you think about it. I wonder how long Freo will take to win one?

  26. Rox said, on 26 July, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    Forever. I hope.

  27. Rox said, on 26 July, 2009 at 3:37 pm

    WTF are Essendon up to!

  28. Ray Dixon said, on 26 July, 2009 at 3:52 pm

    Dunno, I’m watching it on delay and it’s only 1/4 time & 3 pts the difference. Has it all gone pear-shaped for them? Don’t worry about ‘spoiling the surprise’ for me, what’s the score?

    Btw, if Essendon drop this it might give Hawthorn a chance of making the finals after all, and we don’t want that (not that they’d go very far).

  29. Rox said, on 26 July, 2009 at 4:36 pm

    69/81 according to the net.

  30. Rox said, on 26 July, 2009 at 4:40 pm

    78/94. Might have to go and watch. if I can bear it.

  31. Rox said, on 26 July, 2009 at 4:44 pm

    5 points the diff

  32. Ray Dixon said, on 26 July, 2009 at 10:42 pm

    Bad luck, Rox. I think Richmond wanted to prove they’re NOT ‘tankers’. You’re still in the race though.

  33. Orville_B_Croft said, on 27 July, 2009 at 6:10 am

    Yellow and Black

  34. Baldrick said, on 27 July, 2009 at 7:26 am

    here come the Tiges, crawling out of the woodwork again for another week


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