AFL round 13 ‘expert’ tips (part 2)
It’s Blockbuster round
There are only 3 games to cover this week but one of them makes it all worthwhile. Go on, have a wild guess which game I’m talking about. Here are ‘the experts’. Last week’s results (from 5 games) & YTD are in brackets:
Ray (5) (65)
St Kilda v Geelong: Game of the year between last year’s (and this year’s) grand finalists. Geelong’s class v St Kilda’s grit & determination. The Saints will win because they are on a mission.
Sydney v Collingwood: It’s June and, as usual, the Pies have gone off the boil in this their jinx month.
Adelaide v Melbourne: Melbourne are improving but they cannot win interstate.
.
Baldrick (3) (66)
Did I not put the tips in last weekend?
No idea what’s going on, as can be seen by my tipping effort in the World Cup.
I might tip:
Geelong, but only out of respect.
Sydney
Adelaide
.
Greg (3) (67)
• St Kilda to beat Geelong
• Sydney Swans will lose to Collingwood
• Adelaide to lose to Melbourne
.
Rox (3) (61)
I feel as though I’ve run a marathon today starting with the soccer at 5 am.
Geelong, Collingwood and Adelaide
I would prefer all their opponents to win but that’s footy.
Rangas are ruling – Ranga Ling, Ranga Gillard, me…..
I feel sorry for Kev, but he did what he had to do and removed Howard.
Promoting 'Beautiful Bright'.
Click 
You blokes know something I don’t. What is it?
Huh? I only know that I had to prod Baldrick to put his tips in. They’ve just arrived – 2 minutes before kick off. The man is watching too much soccer.
I’ve conceded. Done the numbers and it is the honorable thing to do.
Geelong’s season is gone. Saints for the flag.
Well, tonight’s win (by 4 goals) sans Riewoldt was far more significant than when we beat you in Rd 14 last year by just 6 pts.
St Kilda’s defence (Gilbert, Fisher, Blake & Gwilt) was supreme. Jpod who? Gwilt was not only responsible for keeping Podsiadly goal-less and almost kickless, he was an attacking player himself and in my opinion, best on the ground.
Geelong, 0 goals & 3 pts in the second half. Says it all!!
Still, it doesn’t mean any more than we are possibly on level terms with Geelong as premiership favourites.
Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Saints!
Right. now that’s out of the way, bring on Brazil v Portugal
Oh … I know you’re hurting!
Devastated
Well, it’s only a home & away game. But from a Saints supporter’s point of view it’s bloody heaven.
I rang my daughter at half time and told her “don’t worry, Geelong are 3 goals up but they’ve thrown everything at us that they’ve got. And they’ve got nothing left.”
It was an eerily accurate prediction, but that’s how it looked to me – we took your punishment in the first half and then we just strangled you and cut you open.
Sorry, but that’s how it was.
Yep, you played better than us and won. Good, hard fought match. Well deserved win. Noiw for the real footy
Oh look, Austar are replaying the St Kilda-Geelong game on Fox sports. Bugger the soccer.
Geelong coach not switched on? From The Age:
Not exactly a lot of insight there. I’ve always believed Thompson can’t coach and was just lucky to (still) be there in 2007 after 7 fruitless years when the Geelong players just took over and started coaching themselves. If you look at Thompson in the box he’s never on the phone, he’s never talking and he doesn’t make any moves. I’m not trying to rub it in but I’m just saying that Geelong were not only outplayed last night, they were outcoached.
The proof is in the Grand Final.
Thompson has never been a genius and yes, the players coach themselves I agree. That is why they’re the best team over the past few years. Professionalism and smarts amongst the playing squad and just a little talent.
Thompson is no tactical genius but what I suspect he has people smarts. That can go a long way, ask Julia Gillard.
Well those “people smarts” weren’t evident at the end of 2006 when the players wanted him sacked.
Geelong’s President Frank Costa was the real genius when he surprisingly reappointed Thompson despite the highly critical & negative review that the club had conducted, given he’d had no success with what was regarded as highly talented list.
The message that Costa sent to the playing group by doing that was crystal clear. It said: “Don’t blame the coach. It’s up to you blokes to perform and if you don’t …” And so they did.
And thus I don’t think anyone cares how successful Thompson is, I don’t. The results matter, not the method.
I still reckon the whole improvement stemmed substantially from Chappy blasting players after an insipid performance against Nth.Melbourne in 2007. From that point on, we steamrolled. The players again.
This is a bloody good footy team and administration. We were basket cases just a few years ago and now are envied by all. I’m happy with that.
Saints are an extremely good footy team too and equal to us. Let the contest continue.
Got a feeling we could have a 3-way tie for the lead after this round. As it stands now:
Greg: 68
Ray & Baldrick: 66
Rox: 62
But Greg has picked Collingwood & Melbourne, while Ray & Baldrick have gone the opposite.
Well Ray, there goes another chance to catch up. Hey Rox, you just caught up by one in picking Collingwood. The Magpies are somewhat like Tony Abbott … just when you think they have no hope, they come and disappoint you again
Greg: 69
Ray & Baldrick: 66
Rox: 63
Now if Melboune win tomorrow, I increase my lead to 4
Yes Greg, well done. I dunno why I thought Sydney would win in hindsight.
As for Abbott, he’s been gutted by Gillard. No hope.
Whoa, Geelong & Thompson are really spitting the dummy here:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/st-kilda-and-geelong-greats-fury-at-spiteful-mcg-clash/story-e6frf9jf-1225884727015
WTF? Look who got the shiner. Johnson lost his cool – end of story. Sour grapes much?
Don’t start with the niggling being part of the game. You saw what happened. Johnson should go, so should Baker. End of.
I can’t tolerate bullshit like “it’s all part of the game”, it’s frogshit. When Brisbane targeted Riewoldt when he was seriously injured, I didn’t accept those tactics then. Beat the player through skill, not savagery.
This is the ugly side of AFL and perpetuated by morons justifying it.
Niggling is one thing, a flying and intentional elbow to the head resulting in serious injury is another. There is no equating the two “sins” here. Yes, Baker might cop a suspension for his minor misdemeanours, but Johnson inflicted serious injury forcing Baker to miss most of the rest of the game. He should get double.
As for the Riewoldt incident the difference there is that Riewoldt was in the hands of trainers and was being escorted from the ground. The attack on him by two Brisbane thugs was appalling. But the Johnson/Baker spat was “part of the game” – but only to the point where the umpires should have intervened earlier. They didn’t, so blame them. And blame Johnson’s recklessness.
The point is that Geelong & Thompson are the ones who are hypocritically crying foul here. I think the loss hit them hard and they might be losing the plot.
Yes, it is undoubtedly a catastrophe at Geelong, one which we will never recover from.
I will bank that quote alongside the other one to bring it out again at the appropriate time.
Speaking of which it’s appropriate to remind you of quote #1 right now:
“Are we better than St Kilda? Yes we are.”
You can say “touche” any time you like.
Sorry to harp on about this but now we’ve got the Geelong captain crying “foul” about free kicks & 50 metre penalties awarded against them:
Funny how, on the one hand, Ling is saying it’s a “tough game” and umpires should “let things go a bit more”, but on the other you’ve got Thompson squealing (like a stuck pig, although Ling looks more like one of those?) over the treatment of Johnson by Baker (with no corresponding acknowledgement of Johnson’s reckless behaviour).
Does the left hand know what the right is doing down at Geelong? Can neither coach or captain get their stories straight? And what is it about all the whinging?
And are we seeing Geelong self destruct in front of our eyes? Well, I’m picking North next week.
On the strength of that we’re gone, won’t win another game this year.
That’s another quote for the vault!
Seriously though, and not trying to rub anything in, I do detect a dropping of the ball (or focus) at Geelong. I think they are (as they were last year) seriously over-concerned with St Kilda and now might be thinking they can’t beat them.
I think that underneath they really know that we just blew the GF last year when it was ours for the taking.
Still, they might get lucky again and cop another wintry day at the end of September. And Riewoldt might break down. Oh, wait, we beat you without him!
As I said, St.Kilda is on par with us. I don’t know that the Cats will be that hungry to win another, dynasty has already been established in regard to being a powerhouse. And we beat you last year. Hunger should certainly be there more for the Saints shouldn’t it?
For sure, but Geelong cannot claim to be a “dynasty” and a “powerhouse” if it drops off after just 3 good years, with two flags. On that basis you’d also have to say Adelaide had a “dynasty” when it won two flags in two years (97 & 98) but did nothing before and nothing since.
Dynasties are established over much longer periods like Hawthorn did in the 80s and like Melbourne did in the 50s. Brisbane came close to that in the “Noughties” (3 flags and a runner up in 4 years) but Geelong really needs to do more than it has done so far to go down as a truly great side in history.
Of course, so do the Saints – a lot more.
Oh, Richmond had a “dynasty” too (under Hafey). Four flags over 8 years (67 to 74) and a couple of runners-up is the hallmark of a real powerhouse. Funny how they sacked Hafey after they were runners up in 75.
Melbourne are too far gone to win now, so this is the wrap up from Rd 13 (total):
Greg: 5 (YTD 69)
Baldrick: 4 (67)
Ray: 7 (67)
Rox: 5 (63)
It’s getting tight at the top.
Am I just dumb? I don’t understand.
Plenty of time left, Rox. If you make up 1 per week you’ll catch Greg by Rd 20. Maybe just go the one outsider per week and play safe with the rest. Not that you should take any advice from me!
I thought I had one more point from my 2 wins this weekend.
You’re right! My mistake. Corrected now – sorry.
PS: Now you can catch up by Rd 19.
So Baldrick was stone motherless this week.
I’ve gone right off since the World Cup started, in both comps. Lesson is, show no interest in either and you do ok.
Or, jack of all trades but master ……
Methinks Steve Baker isn’t smiling as broadly tonight.
12 weeks for what? WTF did he do to deserve that? And what about Johnson? This is insane.
A Baker’s Dozen, got a ring to it.
Johnson can get 3 if he doesn’t whinge.
Check this out, too much writing for me http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/97074/default.aspx
It’s a farce. They’ve compounded Baker’s misdemeanours and made it add up to 12. That’s a miscarriage of natural justice.
The reality is that what Johnson did was, at a minimum, twice as bad, and maybe as much as ten times as bad.
So if Baker gets 12, Johnson should get between 24 & 120.
Sound fair? No. The whole thing is a f*cking joke.
Is he important to the team?
No, he is just a dud player whose job every week is to be a thug and mercilessly intimidate opposition key players.
It’s a conspiracy to nobble St.Kilda, Baker is actually innocent and didn’t in any way shape or form provoke an angry reaction from Steve Johnson who is a savage, dirty player. Johnson’s premeditated outlash is lamentable and he should absorb all the penalties and Baker should be cleared because he is a victim.
Bullshit, he’s not a thug and he’s a great defender with a lot of skill & experience.
If he is a thug based on those events then what is Johnson?
As for “intimidating players”, he’s about 5 foot nothing. How “intimidating” is that? At worst he’s an annoyance. Welcome to the real world.
Yes he provoked it, Baldrick. But there is no law that allows provocation as a defence. Again, welcome to the real world.
Aha, now there is. Welcome to the new world.
This is a new classification. Finally, the AFL has accepted that pricks like this need to be stopped. And this should apply to every player from every club who adopts these tactics. There should be no place for thugs. Let Baker show his class through skilful play. I’m not disputing his skill, I would have just liked to have seen it.
He’s not a “thug” and no, provocation is not a defence and the AFL has not applied that in this case.
Johnson was assessed as though he was not provoked, which is correct. He gets 3 if he takes the plea – and that’s about right.
No disrespect, but you are being blatantly one-eyed (not to mention exhibiting sour grapes over the loss) if you think the 12 weeks handed out to Baker is right.
I am not condoning for a minute Johnson’s retaliation other than to say he reacted, and yes, it was a violent one that was harsher than what was meted out to him. I am not an adjudicator, nor do I wish to be.
Johnson should go, Baker should go.
But I will say I am glad that the AFL has through this action made a statement. I’m not entering debate about penalty lengths.
Did you read the AFL report? Debate it with them.
You saw the reaction of the Geelong players on the field, they were not fussed with the loss, nor was I. St.Kilda deserved that win as they played all over us, a much deserved victory. Can’t see how that can be construed to be one eyed. Poor call.
I did not infer at any point that 12 weeks was the appropriate penalty. All i am saying is that a strong statement needs to be made about that style of play. And if you think i would condone a Geelong player doing the same, you’re insane.
You may also note that I have made no comment about Fisher whacking Bartel’s injured arm. Need I ?
Play fair.
No, I’ll debate it with you. You made the accusations and the AFL is not party to this discussion.
Look, no reasonable person could say it’s a just outcome for Baker to get 4 times the penalty that Johnson did. If they’d both had ‘clean sheets’ then Johnson would have to cop more. And even taking ‘priors’ into account, the very worst you could fairly come out with is equal penalties.
Be fair, something the AFL doesn’t understand. This is wrong and I’d be saying the same thing if it were the other way around.
Consider this: Barry Hall (now there’s a real “thug”) got only 7 weeks for sending Staker into next year with a round arm, cowardly and unprovoked, boxer-type left hook. And he had more priors than Baker.
You still gonna stay ‘mum’?
Shows your bias (and sour grapes) if you do.
Fisher’s incident was looked at and dismissed. Read your own link.
It seems that Baker has been cited for at least 3 offences. Hall, for one? Unsure.
And yes, what he did was reprehensible to the highest degree. And yes, 7 weeks seems mild in comparison.
I am not arguing the number of weeks for Baker is appropriate. It is rich for him to get 4 times the amount Johnson got given the gravity of the injury.
For the last time, I am saying Baker (and others) should be taught that this behaviour is inappropriate. It is for the AFL now to justify this, not me.
Baldrick, Johnson was only cited for the one sickening blow but could just as easily have been cited for several other blows in several other incidents. The AFL took it on themselves to cite Baker for every single incident no matter how minor – and I submit they were all minor. They then compounded the incidents to come up with this contrived penalty.
But I can understand how Geelong supporters would welcome this and take some solace out of it, regardless of the fact that it’s patently unfair and a miscarriage of justice. And despite the fact they know that.
After all, they were truly devastated by the game and the way St Kilda exposed Geelong’s weaknesses and exploited them. I guess it’s like saying “well you played dirty”.
Guess what? Geelong played weak.
I’m intrigued as to how you generalise so broadly. You exploited Geelong’s weaknesses last year and again this year.
There may be Geelong supporters looking for excuses, but this erstwhile correspondent has taken it on the chin and “repeatedly” acknowledged St.Kilda’s superiority.
The only solace I take out of this is that Baker was cited. Not the penalty. Is that sour grapes and revelling in Baker’s and St.Kilda’s misery, I think not.
From my point of view, this is the loss we needed to have. St.Kilda is a most worthy adversary, and despite my inane rambling in the past, we are equal, scroll well up to previous comments. We are neck and neck, just like last year, and with the inclusion of Riewoldt, stronger still. I was wrong with my previous prognostication that we are a better side.
Certainly Geelong played weak, but one thing I am confident about is that we have one side that can respond. Is that arrogance?
And as the concluding comment, I remain married to a St.Kilda wife who is shaking her head in disbelief while we write this.
Well, of course not all Geelong supporters would think this is some kind of pay back and an excuse for their loss. I dunno why I thought you were one. Maybe it was comments like these:
“he (Baker) is just a dud player whose job every week is to be a thug and mercilessly intimidate opposition key players”
“Finally, the AFL has accepted that pricks like this need to be stopped”
What’s that about provocation?
Hehe.
This article sums up pretty well the absurd nature of the penalties handed out to Baker:
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/the-worst-decision-i-have-seen-in-25-years-of-writing-football-20100628-zf4l.html?autostart=1
To comb over every single incident and charge him as though they were separate, including the ridiculous charge of hitting his broken hand (how did Baker know it was broken and why was Johnson still playing?) is pure vindictiveness and unconscionable. Just one charge for the worst of his misdemeanours would have been more than adequate – message sent.
Anyone who thinks Baker deserves the biggest penalty handed out in the past 30 years is blinkered to natural justice. I hope St Kilda appeals this all the way to the Supreme court. The AFL has a right to administer its own rules but they have to do it fairly.
St Kilda will contest two of the four charges against Baker and that’s probably about right in my opinion. The two they are contesting are real nitpicking charges and should have been overlooked in the first place. St Kilda will possibly take the matter to court if they’re unsuccessful in having this outrageous penalty reduced. I liked this comment too:
Hawthorn’s Campbell Brown said he “can’t remember ever being as shocked” as when he heard about Baker’s penalties last night. He said he and his Hawk teammates thought many of the incidents involving Baker may not even be looked at by the match review panel.
Says it all.
Glad to see you citing your mates at Hawthorn. You’ve always had a deep and abiding respect for the Hawthorn Football Club.
This could be as important as Mabo if it goes to the courts.
Very cynical, Baldrick. No injustice should be scoffed at, no matter how much you might want to see it carried out.
Well Geelong got what they wanted. All the fuss they kicked up over Baker’s minor indiscretions was clearly a subterfuge to reduce the penalty handed out to Johnson.
4 weeks (reduced to 3) for Johnson was actually for two charges. Believe it or not he only got 2 weeks for splitting Baker’s eye open. Tell me, what damage – or even pain – did Baker inflict on him? SFA.
This week will go down as the week that marks Geelong’s demise into a bunch of losing whingers. Wait, you’ll see. This year’s GF will be played between St Kilda & Collingwood.
A point win to St.Kilda v Collingwood in that final will do me fine.
There’s some real symettry about that. A repeat of the 66 GF 44 years later with the same result.
It also suggests the Saints will beat Collingwod by 1 pt in the 2032 GF, 66 years after the 66 win.
Wow, 2 flags in 22 years – the numbers have it.
And I’ll be able to say I’ve seen them all – if I live that long.
Oh my God, is anyone watching the Footy Show tonight? They’re doing it in Geelong. And the 800 morons in the audience just cheered when the footage of Johnson splitting Baker’s eye open was shown. I reckon you could add the IQs of the crowd together and you still wouldn’t reach 100. Good to see Ling copped a fine for his outrageous comments too.
Refuse to watch it, Geelong or not, mind you I’m on my laptop in the audience. Thank God they’ve got wireless.
If you look carefully enough, I’m the one waving me dentures in the crowd.
To top it off the crowd booed wildly when they covered the StKilda ins & outs, went ballistic over a gobsmackingly stupid stunt involving 50 Geelong people smashing bottles over Shane Crawford’s head (they overdid it so much that he missed the record and that cost a charity $5,000) and then nearly wet themselves when fat guts & fat arse Billy Brownless paraded nude on stage.
It’s all class down there in boganville.
It’s a cultural night out for the burghers of Corio, Highton, Anakie, and the entire electorate of Corangamite. Our folk don’t get out to Melbourne often so when the intelligentsia visit Geelong, well can you blame them?
Well in fairness the crowd was just as intelligent as the panel – which is not saying much.
I did like the street talk in Acland Street, St Kilda though. The Saints moved away from there in 1965 and it’s just as well. Next year they’re moving even further away. To Frankston – the eastern equivalent of Geelong.
The biggest joke was the venue – the Geelong ‘Cultural Centre’.
They’ve got one of those in Frankston too. It’s graffittied.
There’s not really a game tonight is there?!?
Yes, Carlton v Brisbane @ Etihad. Brown & Fevola are out. Who do you pick? I’ll ask the others.
I’ve just sent my tips through in the nicker time! I picked the Blues anyway, I think.
in the nicker time
Tips, nickers, inbox.
I could make a few sleazy comments about that but, if I did, they’d end up being used against me *somewhere*.
Cheers, Rox.
Oops.
I’ve put up a preliminary round 14 post. I have no idea why they’re playing a game tonight (a Thursday) but Leanne says it’s because of the school holidays.
I just nodded and said, “yes, that must be it”.
She’s always right.