AFL round 17 ‘expert’ tips
There’s no mucking around this week. Let’s get straight into it:
Ray (2) (82)
St Kilda v Hawthorn: I hope we’re over the one-game slump.
Collingwood v Richmond: The hype is reaching fever pitch. It’s okay though because we all know they’ll fail in the finals.
Geelong v Brisbane: A no-brainer.
Nth Melbourne v Essendon: Life’s tough at the bottom, Essendon – get used to it.
West Coast v Carlton: If they lose this Carlton could miss the finals. Good!
Bulldogs v Fremantle: After the Aker debacle, which was very poorly handled, they actually don’t deserve to win.
Melbourne v Sydney: I could go either way here. So do Sydney.
Pt Adelaide v Adelaide: Who would really know? Who would really care?
.
Baldrick (3) (83)
Highlight of the round is another Bright born and bred kid Sam Reid, brother of Ben who is playing well at the scum, making his debut for the Swans. Played junior footy with my #2, a great kid and I wish him well.
Tips: Boring as bat guana
HAWTHORN V St.Kilda
COLLINGWOOD v Richmond
GEELONG v Brisbane
NTH.MELBOURNE v Essendon
WEAGLES v Carlton
FOOTSCRAY v Fremantle
Melbourne v SYDNEY
Pt.Adelaide v ADELAIDE
.
Greg (5) (85)
• St Kilda v Hawthorn – I am having difficulty here. I reckon the Saints have peaked and the Hawks are just getting stronger. After their collapse against Collingwood last week, I expect the Saints need to fight back but I feel they will just fall short.
• Collingwood v Richmond – It’s our week for the Richmond bye now that the Tigers run of four has been broken
• Geelong v Brisbane Lions - Looks like the Cats have a bye against the Lions too.
• North Melbourne v Essendon – North are the safer pick here
• West Coast v Carlton – I have lost faith in the Blues so I will pick West Coast
• Western Bulldogs v Fremantle – I am picking Fremantle because of the way Footscray treated Acka
• Sydney v Melbourne – I have lost faith in Melbourne too and will pick Sydney
• Port Adelaide v Adelaide - Port Adelaide will be struggling without Choko and Adelaide should win
.
Rox (3) (78)
Here they are and lucky to have them – my PC has had a nervous breakdown and I’ve lost all my bookmarks and passwords. So no discussion, but straight to the tips. I hope this week is better than last. It seems that nearly every team has half a side out with injuries.
Hawthorn (tentatively)
Collingwood - I was going to pick the Tigers but this Kotchin bloke who’s out seems to be a bit important.
Geelong
NMFC
Eagles
Footerscray
Swans
Adelaide (yawn)
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Highlight of the round is another Bright born and bred kid Sam Reid, brother of Ben who is playing well at the scum, making his debut for the Swans. Played junior footy with my #2, a great kid and I wish him well.
Tips: Boring as bat guana
HAWTHORN V St.Kilda
COLLINGWOOD v Richmond
GEELONG v Brisbane
NTH.MELBOURNE v Essendon
WEAGLES v Carlton
Melbourne v SYDNEY
Pt.Adelaide v ADELAIDE
FOOTSCRAY v Fremantle
Ex-Bright boys are making the news lately!
BTW & PLEASE NOTE:
I’ve changed my tip for tonight’s game. Loyalty and team belief got the better of me – the Saints will win.
I see Rox has tipped: “Hawthorn (tentatively)“
You can change your mind too, Rox. Get with the strength!
Thanks for your tips, Greg, but I reckon it is Collingwood who have clearly “peaked” – last week.
St Kilda on the other hand, have been steady rather than spectacular and would be pacing themselves for the finals. They might lose tonight because they are still readjusting to Riewoldt’s return and he is still not 100%.
But they know they only have to win 4 of the last 6 to finish 16-6 and top 4. You see, this year finishing 4th will be the same as finishing 1st.
Btw, Greg, the Sydney v Melbourne game is actually Melbourne v Sydney (at the MCG). Do you still want to pick Sydney?
Nup. Franklin is back with the Lavatorials and Riewoldt isn’t well enough to be playing.
Right on both counts, Rox. It’s going to be tough for the Saints tonight but if they can win this …… watch out!
(PS: A better name for Hawthorn, considering their colours, might be ‘The Excretas’)
OK. Lavatorial sounds a bit political anyway.
Ray: I’ll still pick Sydney. I’ll be pissed off if the Demons win and I had this chance to change my pick
I just wanted to give you the chance, Greg. I think you’re taking a risk with Freo though. Still, you’ve got a ‘buffer’.
This competition is high stakes Greg, you’re really going out on a limb here.
Well if you don’t want to continue just say so. One pt each for the draw, btw.
Hehe, wouldn’t jettison it for a minute. That was a great match btw, free flowing, not negative. Just not enough shots of Buddy.
And not enough free kicks for him either.
Can give away a 50 though.
How about the 50 m penalty he got in the last quarter that put him right in front for an easy goal?
“No he didn’t play on”, said the umpire.
“He was just running in on his ‘natural arc’ ”
It’s ‘The Buddy Rule’: I.E. Everyone else is deemed to play on if they run away from the straight line over their mark except Buddy – because “that’s his natural arc” !!!
Come to think of it, do you remember how he had a shot from the boundary after the siren for half time?
The umpire told him, “If you play on it’s no score.”
He then ran in and deviated from his line (on his ‘natural arc’ again) and kicked a behind.
Which was allowed to stand!
We were cheated!
I see Geelong are enjoying another unfair advantage today with yet another home game at KittyLand (capacity, oh about 20,000 Geelong fans).
How can the AFL insist all other Vic teams except Geelong must play ALL their home games at Etihad or the MCG?
I think they’d beat Brisbane and most others anyway but this is handing Geelong 7 certain wins. It inconveniences other supporters too. It’s a farce.
Richmond getting belted by Collingwood, Geelong doing the same to Brisbane. Call an end to the H & A season now and start the finals.
And have a proper finals series, not one that they try to get over in 3 weeks with disadvantages to the two top 4 sides that win their first game and, thereby (unbelievably), forfeit the double chance, whereas the losers of those games get one!
You’ve got a good point, they never send Collingwood or St.Kilda or even Hawthorn or Footscray to Geelong where the AFL realise we would annihilate them. Can yiou check your books as to when we last played them at Geelong? Our home games against all these teams are away.
That’s only because of the crap capacity @ KittyLand (not much more than 20,000). It doesn’t alter the fact that Geelong is getting guaranteed wins & percentage boosters from the 7 games it plays in Boganville. And some of the teams it does play there might stand a better chance on neutral territory.
So we don’t then get much of an advantage do we? Given that we don’t get a crack at gun teams on our own dunghill. Wouldn’t be fair if it happened to St.Kilda.
And it is nasty expecting Melbourne based teams to travel all the way to Geelong. Perhaps they could book a hotel overnight to ease the stress of travelling.
And it would hardly be playing “away” for Geelong to play @ Etihad or the MCG. If it is then all other teams are playing home games “away” too.
Missed that: It’s not about the “stress” of travelling, it’s about the clear advantage Geelong gains from being the only Vic club to retain its home ground (and before you say Melbourne plays its “home” games at its MCG home, they no longer even train there – no one does)
You’re posting like fury, I can’t keep up!:
“So we don’t then get much of an advantage do we? Given that we don’t get a crack at gun teams on our own dunghill. Wouldn’t be fair if it happened to St.Kilda.”
Yes you do get an advantage. You play teams that might have a better chance on neutral territory and you get a percentage boost from it. No other Vic side plays “on their own dunghill” and you’re right, it wouldn’t be fair to the comp if St Kilda played 7 games @ Moorabin.
We get to belt the suitcase out of teams either away or at home if we’re good enough.
Remember, before this cohort of players, at the time we were in major financial strife, Geelong was not a fortress, we had lean years when we were belted as much at home as away.
In the old days when we were allowed to play decent teams at home, I used to regularly go to Geelong v Collingwood games where we were not dominant and the crowd effect was minimal as their supporters would travel to Uzbekhistan to see a match.
I would rate Williamstown’s home ground, my local team back in Melbourne, as being an advantage to the home team. The locals lean forward facing the bay so they don’t blow over.
Baldrick, it is only in this decade that all other VIC sides have lost their home grounds. It isn’t that long ago since there were games @ Princes Park, Victoria Park, Windy Hill & Waverley.
Every other team (except Geelong) has lost the advantage of playing on home turf. Perhaps that is one reason for Geelong’s rise to prominence in the 2nd half of the decade?
To deny it’s an advantage is parochial. It’s like denying the interstate teams have an advantage when they play at home too.
Anyway, I am really enjoying seeing Collingwood play their very best footy when it doesn’t count. I kid you not, they are taking on Richmond like it’s a finals game. They are peaking too early and come the finals their best will be behind them.
Btw, I have just checked the records. Geelong has not fared too well in its “away from KittyLand” games this year, losing 4 (Freo, Carlton, St Kilda & Adelaide). They also struggled twice against Hawthorn and once each against Essendon & West Coast. That’s 8 away games they’ve been ordinary to less-than-ordinary. It seems to suggest that they ARE getting an advantage by playing so much at home.
Poor old Tigers – what a pasting.
We’ve all pretty much tipped the same, except Greg picked Fremantle. Uh-oh.
Yes, the fairytale is over for Richmond, Rox. Good to see Collingwood burning themselves out, though.
As for Freo & Greg, well Footscray should win, although the way they treated Aker (a legend) they don’t deserve to. Honestly, don’t you think they made a mess of that? Why sack him with only 6 games to go before his 16 year career ends? It was very amateurish of Footscray.
Interesting scenarios:
1. If Footscray beats Freo today (and it’s likely to) the top 4 will be C’wood, Geelong, St Kilda & Footscray and will probably stay that way until the finals. I.E. the same 4 teams as last year. The order doesn’t matter because 1 plays 4 and 2 plays 3 in week one on equal terms & consequences. Deja Vu.
2. Alberto Contador has (in effect) won Le Tour de France by 39 seconds. Tonight’s final leg into Paris is traditionally a non-event where the leader is not attacked, so it’s all over as of last night’s time trials where Contador added 31 seconds to the 8 second lead he held over Andy Schleck. BUT, if Contador had conformed to the other tradition of not taking advantage of a rider’s mechanical mishap, they would be on exactly the same time. Contador attacked Schleck on a mountain climb a few days ago as soon as he saw Schleck’s chain come off and made up 39 seconds on him – the margin he now stands to win by – and took the lead. So, why should Schleck now conform with the Paris tradition and not attack Contador tonight? I hope he does attack, and I hope Contador’s chain comes off too!
So do I. Gentlemen’s agreements obviously count for nothing now, so GO SCHLECK!
Bulldogs up by about 60 pts already. It’s only the 2nd quarter but I think we can safely say “game over”. As it stands then:
Ray : 4/6
Baldrick : 4/6
Greg : 3/6
Rox : 4/6
And we’ve all picked the same in the other two.
Is Sydney even TRYING to win this game?
I hadn’t been watching/listening. Whoa, how did that happen? Another round of upsets (sorta).