Election 2010
Gillard by one seat?
Update: Buggered if I know!
Click on the image to enlarge.
I’ve used Antony Green’s very accurate State-by-State election calculator to come up with this predicted result – a win to the ALP by just one seat.
The swings I’ve used are pretty consistent with the opinion polls and show an overall national swing to the coalition of 1.3% with the two-party preferred vote being ALP 51.4% Coalition 48.6%.
State-by-State I’ve allowed a swing to Abbott of 4% in both Queensland & W.A., 3% in N.T. and 1.5% in NSW. In Victoria I’ve factored in a 1.5% swing to Labor. I’ve left Tasmania, South Australia and the A.C.T. at status quo, as they are not expected to affect the result.
Of course, I could be well out here.
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Too close to call. WA figures still to come in. I would say at this point, thank God for Tasmania and Victoria.
Other than Denison. Rox which seat are you in?
It’s a hung Parliament by the look of it, with Abbott most likely to form a minority government.
I blame the Bloody Queenslanders for this.
Praise God for common sense.
The Party that holds it self up to being ‘pro women’, ‘pro indigenous’ and ‘pro youth’ has had the best clip behind the ear it deserved with the emilys list pro aborts being booted out and the coalition welcoming in the first indigenous, youngest member of parliament and a pro life leader into the federal sphere.
I love it.
Emily list: you suck. AND YOU FAIL WOMEN!!!
That’s a rather odd take on the result, Orville. But I agree that Wilson Tuckey & Steve Fielding being booted out was a good outcome.
I’ve got my tickets booked. Sooner I’m out of the country the better.
It’s not over yet, Baldrick. My tip is that the ALP will hang on by offerring Bob Katter the Prime Ministership.
Under normal circumstances, I’d think that funny.
Perhaps more likely is the Independents who were Nats in a previous life will go back to their Tory roots and side with Rabbott. The Senate hopefully will keep the Tories from wreaking total havoc.
Fielding is gone, so not all bad news.
There’s no guarantee what Mad Bob Katter will do. This is the bloke who as a Uni student actually threw eggs at the Beatles when they were in Brisbane in 1964 – and he’s proud of it. If you heard him last night talking to Kerry O’Brien you would have sworn he was either pissed or stressed out of his mind by the onerous responsibilty he now finds himself facing. He didn’t make any sense. But this morning (after sobering up I guess) he was saying he wants Labor’s NBN. Go figure?
The ranga could hang on yet.
Sorry – I was out last night watching the trainwreck. I’m in Franklin. We increased uur vote and so did Julie Collins.
That’ll teach everyone to take Southern Tasmania for granted, but I’m still fingers crossed for Julia.
The Greens were the big winners. We did fantastically well. I’m starting to think this is interesting, rather than a complete disaster – I hope the ALP took on board what Saint Maxine said last night.
I don’t think I’d better respond to Orville, other than point out that the Greens are now in an EXTREMELY powerful position.
The Greens now are in a position to be responsible with their power and be proactive and the watchdog. I like Brown and hope he steers the ship well.
I fear the ALP ripping itself to shreds, which will play beautifully into the hands of the Tories. If the former can keep its head and if the Tories step out of line as I suspect they will once they take power with the support of the Tory independents, then it won’t take long before they too will be punished at the polls.
I hope the Australian electorate pauses and reflects about what has happened here.
So do I. They both have big lessons to learn. And I hope the Greens act responsibly.
Baldrick, there’s just as much chance that Gillard will form a government with the independents, especially if Labor wins 73, Coaltion 72 seats. That outcome is still in the balance.
Please Rox. What ever the Greens did it’ll be easily undone, just like everything they stand for…which isn’t much. Good news too with the DLP back in the house.
Emily’s list = failure.
Your misogynism is a concern Orville, but thankfully Neanderthalism is not a major issue.
The DLP, what a joke. Shows comedy is still alive and well in Australian politics.
Watch this person disappear like Fielding did, up their own orifice, all one hit wonders.
Oh Orville, I’m sorry but I can’t see any place for religious views in politics. I just want them to make practical decisions, not religious/emotive ones like pro-life. And to be fair, I also think there’s no place for pushing issues like gay marriage in politics. Let the courts decide maybe? I dunno, but it’s not an issue I think we need to vote on.
I had to look Emily’s List up on Google. What’s that got to do with anything?
Still waiting in Denison…….
If Labor loses Denison to Wilkie then they simply MUST hold Hasluck (in W.A.) from the Libs. Otherwise it will be Coalition 73, ALP 72. Best case scenario is to keep Abbott @ 72 seats – that way he can’t possibly form government.
Antony Green’s latest prognostication is Denison will go to Wilkie, Hasluck to Libs. Looking better for the Tories but it seems that Abbott has now morphed into Simon the Likeable to woo the new Messiahs.
It’s changing all the time. Now he’s got Corangamite (an ALP seat in ‘surfland’) doubtful.
Is this just a bad dream?
No.
Katter is a friggin’ looney – the Libs are welcome to have him on their side.
Is the pro-life issue a religious/emotive one? I thought it only dealt with the first of all human rights, the right to life. Forgive my stupidity.
Who said it was the first of human rights? Who actually says that humans have any fundamental rights at all?
Wilkie goes with the ALP. Bandt goes with the ALP.
Who will the WOK go with? Is this the longest election outcome we’ve ever had (except for Tasmania earlier this year)?
I’m still waiting for that rights debate.
I think they simply have to go with Gillard now, Rox. 77-73 is a lot better than 76-74, which is what Abbott would have.
Why?
Because Abbott’s 76-74 would effectively hand Mad Bob Katter the power to bring down the government. And, knowing he had that power, he’d use it to reak havoc and get his way.
And that’s just unstable – and the 3 amigos have said all along that stability is their prime consideration.
So it looks like ‘Hello PM Julia – You go girl!’
My main hope is that they were true to their word about stability. It must be ripping their hearts out having to consider siding with the “centralists” and essentially pandering to the Greens ( acknowledging the Senate).
Not only that but the black hole revelations (surprise, surprise) and the fact that the one conservative platitude of Labor fiscal impropriety and lack of financial nouse is a non starter, these independents must be spinning out.
Obviously, the longer they can drag this out the higher the concessions.
Call me a raving leftie and naive but I like this partnership, (certainly not a coalition) and what it can deliver with good faith. However, it isn’t a done deal yet. I am a little more optimistic now than I was before but my cynicism of Tories knows no bounds.
I’m with you on those sentiments, Baldrick. If it’s an ALP government reliant on support from:
1. The Greens
2. A true independent in Wilkie
3. 3 ‘independents’ with conservative hearts
Then I reckon we’re going to see a more inclusive and well balanced government than what we’ve seen in the past 50 years. Here’s hoping.
http://doesaustraliahaveagovernmentyet.com/
I love this link. A few days ago it showed NO.
Where’s Orville?
He may re-emerge Rox, the Indies are back in their electorates and will be pressured into siding with the Tories.
How could they jusify going with Abbott after all the crap the coalition has come up with?
I understand what you’re saying Raymond, everything points towards siding with the ALP.
However, their electors in their electorates will turn on them if they do. They are still Tories, the lot of them. And what a perfect cop out excuse it will be when they say “we are reflecting the wants of the electorate”.
I’m still hoping.
from Poll Bludger.
She scares horses.
If you rearrange the letters Sophie Mirabella you get amiable polisher. I think there is something in that for all of us.
A pity she didn’t get a “shellacking” at the polls
Today might be the day the 3 amigos decide.
My tip is that Windsor & Oakeshott will go with Gillard because the alternative is that the coalition would be reliant on Katter (who is not exactly reliable or stable in my opinion).
Imagine a government where Bob Katter effectively held the balance of power, which is what the case would be if all 3 side with Abbott. He’d play havoc.
Ted Mack was interesting this morning. His take on it was they will go with Labor as they will be more protected by them than rabid Nationals endeavouring to unseat them.
I wish they’d hurry the feck up!!
Well, watch Q & A tonight, Rox. Katter is on and I really doubt he’ll be able to keep his big mouth shut. Should be very interesting.
Yeah, I might have to. Pity I get up at 5.45.
Well it’s on @ 9.30, Rox, and only goes for an hour. Go on, be a devil and stay up until 10.30.
And you could twitter all the way through it.
Rox’s first tweet tonight:
FFS Katter make your mind up #auswaits
Haha!! I watched a bit from bed and I thought Katter was OK. I didn’t realise he’d gone to uni and, to be frank, I liked the way he stood up to his questioners, at least in the bit I saw.
I also thought Christine Milne looked stunning. I didn’t even recognise her at first.
Ray, I have to read for at least 30 minutes before I go to sleep – it’s the law.
Well, we should know today. I’m going to stay glued to the Poll Bludger.
“I have to read for at least 30 minutes before I go to sleep – it’s the law”
I used to have to do something for 30 minutes in bed too, Rox, but now it’s more like 3 minutes.
Stop exaggerating
Well, 3 minutes including ‘getting ready’.
C O U N T D O W N
In just under 30 minutes time the three amigos will let us know just who the hell will be the PM.
Get ready for Abbott to go ballistic.
Katter jumps the gun and goes with the coalition.
He’s not joining the press conference with the other two.
Tension!
Windsor & Oakeshott press conference put back to 3 pm. I’m listening to Katter explaining his decision and I reckon he’s made this move in a bid to influence the others to join him … because that would give him the balance of power. He’s a freakin’ nutcase and a loose cannon. How could the other two go with the coaltion now? They’d be better off having nothing to do with him.